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In this compelling episode, Derek Thompson introduces his Atlantic cover story "The Antisocial Century," examining how Americans are spending more time alone than in any period we have trustworthy data for. (03:21) The central finding reveals that in the 21st century alone, we've reduced our face-to-face socializing time by 20% and added an additional ninety-nine minutes of home time to the average day. (03:34) Thompson argues this isolation surge is fundamentally changing our economy, culture, politics, and relationships. The episode features University of Chicago psychologist Nick Epley, whose groundbreaking research on social connection reveals a striking paradox: while humans are fundamentally social beings who benefit enormously from connection, we consistently choose to isolate ourselves based on mistaken predictions about how social interactions will unfold.
Derek Thompson is a staff writer at The Atlantic and host of the Plain English podcast. He recently co-authored "Abundance" with Ezra Klein, exploring American politics and economics over the past fifty years and charting a path forward for liberalism in America.
Nick Epley is a professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business. He studies "mind reading" - how we think about other people's thoughts, beliefs, and attitudes, and mostly how we misunderstand each other in ways that cause friction in our lives. He has conducted fifteen years of research on social connection and is the author of "Mind Wise."
Nick Epley's train experiments revealed that people consistently predict they'll be happier keeping to themselves rather than talking to strangers, yet the opposite proves true. (23:00) When researchers asked Chicago commuters to either talk to someone new, keep to themselves, or do whatever they normally do, those who engaged in conversation reported significantly more positive commutes. However, when asked to predict their feelings beforehand, people expected solitude would make them happier. This "mistaken seeking of solitude" occurs because we underestimate how receptively others will respond to our genuine outreach, not because we think connection itself will be unpleasant.
Epley's experiments with MBA students demonstrate that people dramatically underestimate how much they'll enjoy meaningful conversations with strangers. (33:59) When students were paired up and asked deep questions like "If I was going to become a good friend of yours, what would be most important for me to know about you?" the gaps between predicted and actual enjoyment were "almost embarrassing" as a psychologist. Students reported having some of the best conversations of their lives, with some sharing things they'd never told another person before. Yet beforehand, they expected these interactions to be awkward or uncomfortable.
Research shows that voice-based communication creates meaningfully stronger social connections than text-based interaction. (52:01) The human voice contains "paralinguistic cues" - fluctuations in tone, pace, and inflection that signal the presence of mental life and make the speaker seem more thoughtful, intelligent, and human. Text communication lacks these vital cues, making it feel "dead" and lifeless. Even when the content is identical, people feel more connected to others when they hear their voice rather than read their words, which explains why phone calls foster better relationships than texting.
The key to social fitness lies in turning small social behaviors into daily habits rather than seeking intense occasional connections. (64:32) Epley emphasizes that happiness comes more from the frequency of positive events than their intensity, making consistent small social interactions more valuable than occasional deep connections. His personal example involves habitually greeting everyone he passes on his daily walk to the office - from janitors to colleagues - creating a "200-yard walk that's like getting a bunch of high fives." These micro-connections become part of one's character and provide sustainable boosts to daily well-being.
The reason these social prediction gaps persist is that "you only learn from the experiences you have, and you don't learn from the experiences you avoid." (60:53) When people avoid social interactions due to anxiety or pessimistic expectations, they never get the corrective feedback that would show them their predictions are wrong. This creates a vicious cycle where avoidance reinforces mistaken beliefs about social interaction. The solution requires deliberately approaching rather than avoiding social opportunities, allowing real experience to override inaccurate predictions.