BTC252: Bitcoin Mastermind 3Q 2025 w/ Joe Carlasare, Jeff Ross, and American HODL (Bitcoin Podcast)
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
This quarterly mastermind discussion brings together Preston Pysh with Bitcoin veterans Jeff Ross, American Hoddle, and Joe Carlissari to dissect the current state of Bitcoin markets and broader macroeconomic trends. The conversation tackles widespread investor frustration with Bitcoin's sideways performance throughout 2025, despite expectations for significant price appreciation following traditional four-year cycles. (01:00)
- Main Theme: The death of Bitcoin's four-year cycle and the shifting landscape toward hard assets as superior long-term investments over traditional equities in an era of monetary debasement.
Speakers
Preston Pysh
Host of Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast and co-founder of The Investor's Podcast Network, with extensive experience in financial markets and military background. Known for his analytical approach to Bitcoin and macro investing.
Jeff Ross
Former hedge fund manager and practicing physician who transitioned away from medicine in January 2025. Specializes in macro investing with a focus on hard assets and manufacturing sector indicators as predictors of Bitcoin price movements.
American Hoddle
Long-time Bitcoin advocate and content creator known for his technical analysis and market commentary. Currently creating exclusive content on Nostr platform, focusing on Bitcoin adoption and market dynamics.
Joe Carlissari
Attorney at Amundson Davis law firm specializing in Bitcoin regulatory issues and litigation. Represents numerous Bitcoin miners and individuals involved in cryptocurrency legal matters, providing legal expertise to the Bitcoin community.
Key Takeaways
The Four-Year Cycle is Dead - Embrace Business Cycle Investing
The traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle based on halvings is obsolete and misleading investors. (05:18) Jeff Ross emphasizes that Bitcoin's price movements correlate more strongly with global liquidity cycles and manufacturing sector performance (ISM manufacturing index) than halving events. This shift requires investors to abandon calendar-based expectations and focus on fundamental economic indicators. The manufacturing sector has been in recession since 2022, but once it recovers above 50, Bitcoin should experience significant appreciation. This represents a paradigm shift from event-driven to cycle-driven investing.
Hard Assets Will Outperform Equities for the Next Decade
A 100+ year chart of the S&P 500 divided by gold reveals we're entering a secular shift toward hard assets. (08:36) Jeff Ross presents compelling evidence that we hit an inflection point in December 2021, similar to 1967 and 1929, marking the beginning of a 10-15 year period where hard assets will outperform traditional stocks. The chart shows these cycles persist for decades, with the last trough occurring in 1980. This suggests gold, Bitcoin, and other hard assets will be superior investments compared to the S&P 500 through the 2030s.
Central Banks Drive the Gold Rally - Bitcoin is the US Response
Gold's 2025 outperformance against Bitcoin (down 37% in gold terms year-to-date) is primarily driven by BRICS nations and central bank buying as they seek alternatives to US Treasuries. (16:57) Eastern central banks are purchasing gold as a neutral reserve asset, while retail investors follow suit. However, this creates a geopolitical opportunity for the US to promote Bitcoin as the 21st century alternative to gold, establishing Bitcoin as America's strategic reserve asset while encouraging citizens to buy Bitcoin rather than supporting China through gold purchases.
AI Revolution Will Create Deflationary Boom, Not Job Apocalypse
The AI buildout represents a massive productivity boost that will ultimately drive prices lower across most goods and services. (54:53) Joe Carlissari notes that McKinsey estimates $6-7 trillion in spending through 2030, with the Magnificent Seven alone investing over $1 trillion in CapEx. This isn't borrowed money but cash-rich companies building future monopolistic infrastructure. Rather than mass unemployment, the next 5 years will see job creation in skilled positions supporting the buildout, with deflationary effects materializing later as productivity gains compound.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies Face Structural Challenges in Sideways Markets
The collapse of Bitcoin treasury companies' stock prices reveals the flaws in their leverage-dependent business models during sideways price action. (68:05) These companies rely on Bitcoin appreciating 40% annually while issuing debt at 10% to maintain their leverage ratios and continue accumulating Bitcoin. When Bitcoin trades sideways, they become over-leveraged and cannot continue their acquisition strategies. Only MicroStrategy and a few others maintain sufficient scale and operational flexibility to survive extended sideways markets, while smaller treasury companies trade like "Bitcoin penny stocks."
Statistics & Facts
- Bitcoin is up 67% over the last twelve months, though this is considered disappointing by long-term holders expecting much higher returns. (04:09)
- The US manufacturing sector has been in recession according to ISM indicators since 2022, representing three consecutive years of contraction below the 50 threshold. (04:45)
- Bitcoin is down 37% against gold year-to-date, with gold significantly outperforming throughout 2025 as central banks and retail investors pile into the precious metal. (17:05)