20VC OGs: SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price | Airwallex Raises $330M and The Battle with Keith Rabois | Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers | IPO Market Predictions for 2026: Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks and SpaceX
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
This episode of 20VC brings together Harry Stebbings, Jason Lemkin, and Rory O'Driscoll for what they call "the spiciest show we've ever done," diving deep into the biggest tech deals and valuations of late 2024. The discussion kicks off with SpaceX's massive $800 billion valuation through secondary sales, then moves through major M&A moves like Netflix's potential acquisition of Warner Brothers for $82.7 billion. (03:46) The conversation covers everything from Tiger's downsized $2.2 billion fund strategy to Harvey's $160 million raise at an $8 billion valuation, while exploring whether LLMs will kill the app layer and examining the controversial Airwallex funding round amid geopolitical concerns.
- Main themes: Massive valuations in private markets, the coming IPO wave of 2026, AI company defensibility, and the intersection of geopolitics with venture capital decisions
Speakers
Harry Stebbings
Host of the 20VC podcast, one of the world's leading venture capital and startup podcasts. Harry is also a venture capitalist and has built a significant media presence in the tech ecosystem, interviewing top VCs, founders, and industry leaders while providing commentary on major tech trends and deals.
Jason Lemkin
Founder and Managing Director at SaaStr, one of the largest SaaS communities and conferences in the world. Jason is a seasoned entrepreneur and investor who previously founded EchoSign (acquired by Adobe) and has extensive experience in B2B software investing and company building.
Rory O'Driscoll
Partner at Scale Venture Partners, where he focuses on growth-stage investments in enterprise software companies. Rory has extensive experience in venture capital and has been involved in numerous successful investments in the B2B software space, bringing both operational and investment expertise to high-growth companies.
Key Takeaways
Private Market Valuations Are Creating Public Market Risk
The hosts emphasize that every time private market valuations have come into contact with public market valuations in 2024, "private market valuations were found wanting." (08:16) With SpaceX at $800 billion (40x revenue) and similar high multiples across the board, there's significant valuation risk. Jason notes that while these might be amazing companies, "it is possible to lose money on a great company" when paying premium prices. The key insight is that late-stage investors are essentially only running valuation risk at these levels, as operational and market risks are largely eliminated for proven companies.
2026 Will Be the Year of Massive IPOs
The panel predicts that 2026 could deliver unprecedented IPO returns with SpaceX ($800B), Anthropic ($400B), and Databricks ($200B) potentially going public. (10:40) This would represent $1.4 trillion in market cap and approximately $700 billion returned to VCs - potentially 20% of the total private venture market value. Jason emphasizes that "it only takes one or two of the top of the power law to go public to dwarf 10 little $2 billion IPOs," highlighting how power law dynamics will drive returns.
Revenue Growth Durability Trumps Valuation Concerns in AI
When analyzing Harvey's $160M round at $8B valuation, Jason argues that if revenue growth is durable (Harvey went from $50M to $150M ARR), "you just do the deal." (41:42) The discussion reveals that with 300% growth and 98% gross dollar retention, the math works even at premium valuations. The key takeaway is that in high-growth AI companies, focusing on growth durability rather than getting lost in valuation minutiae often leads to better investment decisions.
App Layer Defensibility Depends on Deep Customer Integration
The hosts debate whether LLMs will kill application companies, with differing views on defensibility. Rory argues that "the moat, the skill is in the GTM and the implementation," while Jason worries about model improvements making current apps obsolete. (50:18) The critical insight is that apps winning through deep workflow integration and customer implementation (like Harvey with major law firms) have stronger defensibility than those competing purely on model performance.
Geopolitical Risk Is Becoming a Valuation Factor
The Airwallex discussion reveals how geopolitical considerations are creating valuation discounts. Despite similar metrics to Ramp, Airwallex trades at 8x revenue versus Ramp's much higher multiple, largely due to an "Asia discount." (71:15) Rory notes this represents a "gradual unwinding of globalization" where companies with Chinese engineering talent or data centers face additional due diligence and potential customer concerns, requiring strategic adjustments to maximize valuation.
Statistics & Facts
- SpaceX is doing $15 billion in revenue growing approximately 30% year-over-year, leading to the $800 billion valuation representing roughly 40x run rate revenue. (05:05)
- Harvey has achieved $150 million in ARR with 300% year-over-year growth, 98% gross dollar retention, and 168% net dollar retention, justifying their $8 billion valuation. (37:57)
- The total private market valuation for venture-backed companies is approximately $2.8-2.9 trillion, meaning the potential $700 billion return from three major IPOs would represent about 20% of total private venture market value. (11:14)
