The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 — with Ian Bremmer
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In the 378th episode of Professor G Pod, Jessica Tarlov steps in for Scott to interview Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, about the top risks for 2026. The conversation centers on three major threats: Trump's political revolution (risk #1), the global energy and AI race (risk #2), and the Don Roe doctrine demonstrated by the U.S. intervention in Venezuela. (00:23)
- Main themes: The discussion explores how American power is being restructurally transformed through military intervention in the Western Hemisphere, the acceleration of a domestic political revolution, and the U.S. falling behind in the global energy transition while China dominates twenty-first century infrastructure.
Speakers
Jessica Tarlov
Jessica Tarlov is a political strategist and co-host of Fox News' "The Five" as well as co-host of the "Raging Moderates" podcast with Scott Galloway. She brings expertise in political analysis and commentary to discussions about American politics and policy.
Ian Bremmer
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm. He has been producing annual top risks reports for twenty years and is recognized as a leading authority on global political and economic risks affecting international markets and governments.
Key Takeaways
The Don Roe Doctrine Represents a New Era of American Regional Dominance
The successful U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro demonstrates Trump's intention to be "the arbiter of what happens in its hemisphere broadly defined." (01:59) This represents a shift from economic to military projection of power, as Bremmer explains that while China may be the largest trading partner for most Latin American countries, "militarily, the Americans clearly call the shots." However, this approach carries significant second-order risks, as Trump's administration will have responsibility for the consequences of their interventions, even if they don't believe that to be true.
Trump's Political Revolution Is Already Underway
Bremmer emphasizes that the U.S. political revolution "is not a possibility. We think it's happening." (24:59) Trump believes the political system was weaponized against him through impeachments, felony charges, and assassination attempts, which justifies him taking "political control of the administrative state" and weaponizing power ministries like the FBI, DOJ, and IRS. The goal is ensuring that "the principal enemies of Trump and therefore The United States, not Russia, not China, but the Democratic Party in The US, can no longer come to power."
America Is Losing the Global Energy Race to China
Despite America's dominance in oil and gas production and control over Venezuela's massive oil reserves, the country is making a "really bad bet" by fighting the energy transition. (38:00) As Bremmer puts it: "Washington is asking the world to buy twentieth century energy while Beijing offers twenty-first century infrastructure." China has mastered the "electric stack" - batteries, grids, manufacturing - while the U.S. bets that whoever builds the smartest AI models wins, but you need inexpensive renewable energy to power that AI.
Norm Erosion Creates a Slippery Slope for Future Administrations
The personalization of industrial policy and breaking of political norms under Trump will not be reversed by future administrations, whether Republican or Democrat. (33:25) As Bremmer warns: "When you break norms and you put more power in the hands of the political system and the executive, they will use that for whatever political ends they want." If today's state capitalism supports oil companies, tomorrow's Democratic administration will use those same expanded powers to promote renewable energy and their preferred companies.
Europe Under Siege Faces an Impossible Choice
Europe's three major powers - France, Germany, and the UK - enter 2026 with weak governments and no margin for reform at precisely the moment they need to spend massively on defense and infrastructure. (47:36) They're caught between American pressure to spend more while receiving less support, and Russian asymmetric warfare designed to divide them. Meanwhile, rising populist movements internally oppose EU integration and immigration, creating what Bremmer calls "a no win situation for Europe" that should have been addressed decades ago.
Statistics & Facts
- The United States produces 13.5 million barrels of oil per day, giving it massive energy influence, especially after gaining some control over Venezuela's proven oil reserves - the largest in the world. (37:59)
- Venezuela has generated 8 million legal migrants who have destabilized the region, representing a significant factor in Trump's justification for intervention. (11:22)
- India's population of 1.5 billion people combined with 8% economic growth makes it a crucial player in building alternative international relationships as the U.S. abdicates traditional leadership. (56:59)
