How Liverpool Used Data to Sign Mo Salah, Allison, and Van Dijk | Dr Ian Graham
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
Dr. Ian Graham, Liverpool's former Director of Research, reveals the inside story of how data analysis transformed Liverpool from challengers to champions. (00:04) The episode centers on the revolutionary signing of Mohamed Salah in 2017, detailing how Liverpool's data-driven approach identified his potential when other clubs were blinded by his perceived failure at Chelsea. (04:04) Graham discusses the internal battles during Brendan Rodgers' tenure, where the transfer committee approach led to frustration and poor signings like Balotelli. (18:31) The conversation also covers the record-breaking signings of Virgil van Dijk and Alisson, explaining how Liverpool's systematic approach to recruitment created one of the most successful periods in the club's modern history.
- Main Themes: The power of data analysis in football recruitment, overcoming institutional resistance to change, and how systematic decision-making can identify value in overlooked talent.
Speakers
Dr. Ian Graham
Dr. Ian Graham served as Liverpool FC's Director of Research, playing a pivotal role in the club's data revolution that transformed their recruitment strategy. He was one of the key architects behind Liverpool's most successful signings, including Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk, and Alisson, helping guide the club to Champions League and Premier League victories. Graham has recently authored "How to Win the Premier League," detailing the analytical methods that reshaped modern football recruitment.
Key Takeaways
Use Data to Challenge Popular Narratives
Graham explains how Liverpool's data analysis allowed them to see beyond Mohamed Salah's perceived "failure" at Chelsea. (04:49) The data provided objective evidence that Salah's limited playing time was due to being behind Eden Hazard in the pecking order and Mourinho's preference for experienced players, not a lack of ability. Practical Application: When evaluating talent or opportunities in your field, gather objective data to challenge widely-held assumptions and look beyond surface-level narratives that might cause others to overlook valuable prospects.
Create Psychological Safety for Bold Decision-Making
Graham emphasizes how crucial psychological safety was for making unconventional signings. (16:23) He notes that "signing Mo was something you could get sacked for if it didn't work out" but Liverpool's ownership and Klopp's leadership created an environment where bold decisions were supported. The safety to make contrarian choices came from the top and was essential for their success. Practical Application: Foster an environment where team members feel safe to challenge conventional wisdom and propose innovative solutions, even when they carry risk of failure.
Focus on Aging Curves and Future Potential
Liverpool's analysis showed that Salah, at 24, was on a trajectory to become "one of the best players in the world" based on his aging curve data. (02:59) Graham explains that players typically improve until age 27, and Salah was already above Premier League average while playing in Italy with significant room for growth. Practical Application: When evaluating talent or investments, consider not just current performance but trajectory and potential for future growth, factoring in natural development curves specific to the field or industry.
Distinguish Performance from Outcome
Graham describes how data helped players understand the difference between their performance level and short-term outcomes. (28:04) When forwards were scoring fewer goals, the data showed they were actually creating more chances and receiving the ball in better positions - their performance had improved even though the outcomes seemed worse. Practical Application: Regularly assess whether you're measuring actual performance quality or just final results, especially during periods when outcomes don't match effort levels.
Leverage Market Inefficiencies
Liverpool's success came partly from identifying market inefficiencies - Roma's financial distress allowed them to sign both Salah and Alisson below market value. (03:54) Graham emphasizes that understanding market conditions and timing is as important as identifying talent. Practical Application: Stay informed about market conditions and external factors that might create opportunities to acquire valuable assets or talent at below-market prices when others are distracted by superficial factors.
Statistics & Facts
- Liverpool rated themselves as having a "top five attack in the world" but only a "top 20 defense in Europe" during the 2016-17 season. (34:47) This analysis directly informed their decision to prioritize defensive signings like van Dijk and Alisson.
- There was an informal ban at Liverpool on signing players over the age of 24, with most successful signings (Salah, Mane, Firmino, Robertson, Matip) being exactly 24 or younger when acquired. (39:24)
- Liverpool needed 76 points to finish fourth in the 2016-17 season, illustrating how the rest of the "big six" having exceptional seasons made qualification more difficult despite Liverpool's improved performances. (33:01)
