Scott Galloway’s Predictions for 2026
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Podcast Summary
In this first episode of 2026, Scott Galloway shares his bold predictions for the year ahead, covering everything from AI market corrections to the rise of space technology. (12:03) The episode features Scott's annual tradition of forecasting major tech trends, stock picks, and societal shifts that will shape the business landscape in 2026. (05:00) Key themes include the potential collapse of AI valuations due to Chinese competition, Amazon's robotics-driven transformation, and the emergence of space as the next major tech frontier.
• Main themes: AI market disruption, space technology emergence, robotics automation, synthetic relationships risks, and college education's enduring valueSpeakers
Scott Galloway
Scott Galloway is a professor at NYU Stern School of Business and founder of Prof G Media. He has built and sold multiple companies over 30 years and is known for his sharp analysis of big tech and business trends. (06:18) He started Prof G Media as a different approach from his traditional strategy of raising money and selling companies, focusing instead on creativity, intellectual property, and meaningful work.
Ed Elson
Ed Elson is the co-host of Prof G Markets and this is his first job out of college. Along with producer Claire Miller, he has helped grow the show into what Scott describes as "probably the most successful product I've ever been involved in right out of the gates." (08:40)
Key Takeaways
Prepare for AI Market Disruption Through Chinese Competition
China is positioned to significantly disrupt the AI market by dumping cheaper, open-weight AI models that perform at near-parity with expensive American alternatives. (12:36) Companies like Airbnb are already using Alibaba's AI models because they offer 90% of OpenAI's performance at 30% of the cost. This represents a strategic economic weapon that could force major corrections in AI stock valuations while providing businesses with cost-effective alternatives to expensive American AI services.
Invest in Automation-Ready Companies Before the Robotics Revolution
Amazon's robotics strategy positions it as the "Ford of the 21st century," with the company operating one million robots versus the rest of the nation's 400,000. (24:31) Scott predicts Amazon can double retail revenue by 2033 without increasing employees, creating massive margin expansion. The key insight is that AI's biggest value will come through autonomous systems and robotics rather than just software applications, making companies with existing robotics infrastructure prime beneficiaries.
Diversify Risk Away from Screens and Toward Real Relationships
Young people are misallocating their risk-taking behavior by gambling on prediction markets and crypto while avoiding social risks like approaching strangers or expressing romantic interest. (54:23) Scott advises taking fewer risks with money on platforms like Polymarket and Robinhood, and instead taking more risks with time and relationships by getting out of the house and engaging with people in person. This reallocation of risk-taking behavior could lead to better long-term outcomes and genuine fulfillment.
Recognize Space Technology as the Next Investment Mega-Trend
Space is positioned to become 2026's breakout technology sector, with SpaceX controlling 90% of launch capacity and two-thirds of satellites. (27:07) The cost per kilogram to reach space has dropped 90%, creating a mini-monopoly for SpaceX while opening opportunities for space defense companies. The investment thesis is that space has evolved from "weird narcissism" to practical applications in hauling, connectivity, and defense, with new unicorns likely emerging in space-based weapons systems.
Maintain College Education as a Long-term Strategy Despite Narrative Shifts
Despite claims that college is becoming irrelevant, the data shows college graduates still have dramatically better life outcomes across all metrics. (48:18) The median household income for college graduates is $133,000 versus $58,000 for high school graduates, with lower divorce rates, obesity, and suicide rates. Even tech companies claiming to hire without degrees haven't meaningfully changed their hiring practices, with only a 3.5% increase in workers without degrees at major firms.
Statistics & Facts
- China has reduced exports to the US by $70 billion in just the last eight months, showing their strategic diversification away from American markets. (12:49)
- Amazon operates 1 million robots compared to the rest of the nation's 400,000 operational industrial robots, demonstrating their massive advantage in automation infrastructure. (24:34)
- NVIDIA's market cap is greater than the combined market cap of Costco, Bank of America, IBM, Palantir, ExxonMobil, Walmart, Netflix, Oracle, Home Depot, and Salesforce. (19:57)
