The Future of Entertainment, Part 2: What’s the Matter With Broadway?
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Podcast Summary
This episode features Broadway producer John Johnson discussing the current state of Broadway and the challenges facing the theater industry. Johnson, who has produced acclaimed shows like "Good Night and Good Luck" and "Stereophonic," explains how Broadway experienced a golden age in the 2010s with hits like Hamilton, Book of Mormon, and Dear Evan Hansen. (06:42) However, COVID fundamentally changed the industry's economics and audience demographics. The episode explores why none of the musicals that opened last season have made a profit and examines the broader challenges of rising costs, demographic shifts, and the "death of the middle" in entertainment.
- Main themes: Broadway's transition from a 2010s boom to post-COVID struggles, demographic shifts in theater audiences, and the economic challenges facing new musical productions
Speakers
John Johnson
John Johnson runs Wagner Johnson Productions, a Broadway production and management company, and has been a Broadway producer for over 25 years. He produced George Clooney's "Good Night and Good Luck," which became the highest-grossing play of all time, and "Stereophonic," which received a record-breaking 13 Tony nominations in 2024. Johnson has worked on productions both on Broadway and London's West End, as well as national tours across the country.
Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson is the host of Plain English and a staff writer at The Atlantic. He previously worked as a theater actor in the Washington DC area at venues like the Folger Shakespeare Theater and Arena Stage before transitioning to journalism and writing.
Key Takeaways
Broadway's Core Demographic Has Fundamentally Shifted
The traditional Broadway audience of suburban women aged 60+ who would attend shows 6-8 times per year has been replaced by urban millennials and Gen X audiences who attend only 2-3 times annually. (16:22) This shift occurred because suburban audiences became comfortable staying local during COVID, while city dwellers emerged from lockdown eager for live entertainment experiences. This demographic change requires producers to rethink content development and marketing strategies for shows that take 5-7 years to develop.
The "Death of the Middle" Parallels Hollywood's Struggles
Broadway is experiencing its own version of Hollywood's "death of the middle," where established hits like Hamilton, Wicked, and Lion King continue to thrive while mid-budget new productions struggle. (35:32) Audiences are increasingly choosing proven hits over taking risks on new shows, similar to moviegoers preferring established franchises. This creates a challenging environment for original productions that need to find their audience organically.
Development Costs Must Be Reconsidered for Sustainability
Johnson emphasizes that Broadway shows now require smarter development approaches, questioning whether productions need $4-8 million in development costs before even reaching Broadway. (34:16) The industry must evolve from its 2010s mindset of unlimited spending, focusing instead on strategic investments that can sustain longer runs and profitability for all stakeholders.
Off-Broadway Has Become More Attractive to New Audiences
The demographic shift has created an Off-Broadway renaissance, with urban audiences preferring intimate 200-seat theaters over Times Square spectacles. (20:18) Shows featuring celebrities like Aubrey Plaza and Adam Driver in smaller venues offer proximity to talent and better dining options, appealing to the new core audience of urban professionals.
Trust Your Gut While Understanding Others' Tastes
Successful producing requires balancing personal artistic instincts with market awareness, approximately 65-70% understanding audience preferences and 30-35% trusting personal taste. (43:48) Johnson advises identifying specific audience segments for each production and using community feedback as an informal focus group, while avoiding the trap of "drinking your own Kool-Aid" too heavily.
Statistics & Facts
- None of the musicals that opened in the most recent Broadway season made a profit, highlighting the industry's current financial challenges. (24:52)
- Broadway productions typically take 5-7 years to develop from conception to opening night, creating challenges when audience demographics shift during development. (26:01)
- For every Broadway musical that gets produced in a season, seven others compete for the same theater space but don't make it to Broadway. (27:01)
