A Grand Unified Theory of Cultural Stagnation
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In this thought-provoking episode of Plain English, Derek Thompson explores a fascinating theory about modern culture with psychologist Adam Mastroianni: across movies, music, architecture, science, and even crime, society has become increasingly "stuck" and risk-averse. (04:55) The conversation traces how everything from blockbuster films (now 75% sequels and franchises) to corporate logos (all minimalist and similar) to scientific research has become more homogenous and less deviant since around 1970. (07:01) Mastroianni presents a counterintuitive grand theory: as society has become safer and people value life more highly, we've developed an aversion to both harmful risks (teenage drinking, crime) and beneficial risks (creative breakthroughs, novel ideas). The episode examines whether this cultural stagnation represents an inevitable evolution of wealthy societies or a troubling trend that needs addressing.
- Main themes include the decline of cultural deviance, the relationship between safety and creativity, and the paradox of increased rule-following in both crime prevention and artistic expression
Speakers
Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the host of the Plain English podcast. He's a leading voice in analyzing cultural and economic trends, having written extensively about innovation, technology, and the intersection of culture and economics for major publications.
Adam Mastroianni
Adam Mastroianni is a social psychologist and writer who studies human behavior and cultural trends. He writes the popular Experimental History newsletter and has conducted research on topics ranging from social psychology to cultural evolution. His work on the "decline of deviance" has gained significant attention for connecting disparate cultural phenomena under unified theories.
Key Takeaways
The Paradox of Safety and Creativity
As society has become dramatically safer - with teenage drinking, drug use, violent crime, and serial killing all declining since the 1970s - we've simultaneously lost our appetite for beneficial forms of risk-taking in art, science, and culture. (08:00) Mastroianni argues this stems from people valuing life more highly as ambient risks have decreased. When you no longer worry about being drafted into war, dying from treatable infections, or facing everyday dangers, you become more sensitive to optional risks. This same psychology that prevents teenagers from drinking at parties may also prevent scientists from pursuing radical research directions or filmmakers from creating truly original content. The practical application here is recognizing that breakthrough innovation often requires embracing uncertainty and potential failure, which goes against our evolved risk-aversion in safe societies.
The Surveillance Effect on Deviance
The decline of extreme deviance like serial killing coincides with the rise of what Thompson calls a "soft panopticon" - the expectation that behavior will be monitored and recorded. (14:35) This surveillance extends beyond literal cameras to include social media permanence, professional reputation tracking, and institutional memory systems. While this has dramatically improved public safety, it may also constrain beneficial creativity and risk-taking. Scientists avoid controversial research directions, artists stick to proven formulas, and individuals self-censor to protect long-term reputational interests. The key insight is that the same mechanisms protecting us from harmful deviance may be limiting beneficial innovation and cultural progress.
The Oligopoly of Cultural Superstars
Across entertainment industries, a smaller number of major players now control larger market shares than ever before. (18:21) Mastroianni identifies three driving forces: "invasion" (amateur competition forcing professionals to focus on big-budget spectacles only they can produce), "innovation" (discovering formulas that effectively capture attention), and "proliferation" (too many choices leading consumers to rely on familiar cues). This concentration has practical implications for anyone creating content or building audiences - success increasingly requires either massive scale advantages or finding underserved niches. The strategic lesson is that in oversaturated markets, extreme differentiation or extreme familiarity tend to win, while middle-ground approaches struggle.
The Global Box Office Effect on Hollywood
The globalization of film markets around 2000, combined with rising marketing costs, fundamentally changed Hollywood's approach to content creation. (22:28) Studios shifted toward franchises with "pre-awareness" - characters audiences already know - because these travel better internationally and justify enormous marketing investments. CGI spectacles translate across cultures more effectively than dialogue-heavy dramas, which have largely migrated to streaming platforms. This creates a feedback loop where audiences expect familiar content in theaters, reinforcing studio decisions to invest in sequels and franchises. The broader lesson applies to any global business: success at scale often requires sacrificing local nuance for universal appeal.
The Innovation Paradox in Science
Despite more researchers and resources than ever before, scientific productivity has declined since the 1970s, with breakthrough discoveries becoming rarer. (34:15) Mastroianni traces this to risk-averse funding systems that prefer guaranteed results over high-risk, high-reward research. The example of Nobel Prize winner Katalin Karikó, who immigrated with minimal resources and developed mRNA vaccine technology, illustrates how transformative science often comes from individuals with unconventional backgrounds who aren't invested in maintaining institutional stability. The practical implication is that breakthrough innovation requires not just intelligence and resources, but also a willingness to challenge established paradigms - something that becomes harder as individuals become more embedded in existing systems and more concerned with long-term career stability.
Statistics & Facts
- The share of top-grossing films that are prequels, sequels, or spinoffs has tripled in the last 25 years, rising from about 25% before 2000 to approximately 75% today. (22:13) This statistic demonstrates the dramatic shift toward familiar content in Hollywood blockbusters.
- Teenage engagement in risky behaviors has declined dramatically since the 1990s, with decreases in drinking, illegal drug use, teen pregnancy, and even bringing weapons to school, despite these trends being largely overlooked in cultural discussions. (08:00)
- Only 50% of Americans had high-speed internet at home by 2007, with Instagram not launching until 2010, indicating that many cultural stagnation trends began before the algorithmic social media era that many blame for current problems. (43:31)
