The AI Wealth Gap: Why 40x Deflation Changes Everything w/ Dave Blundin, Salim Ismail, Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross | EP #208
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
This episode of Moonshots explores the rapidly accelerating world of AI and technology, examining everything from anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise markets to the reality of global concerns about cost of living and unemployment. (00:00) The hosts discuss breakthrough developments including 40x year-over-year hyper deflation in AI costs, the emergence of world-generating AI models, and the potential for AI to solve grand challenges in science and medicine. (41:30)
- Core discussion centers on how exponential technological progress contrasts with widespread public anxiety about economic survival and employment
Speakers
Peter Diamandis
Founder and chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation and Singularity University, Peter is a pioneer in commercial space exploration and exponential technologies. He has founded over 25 companies and written multiple bestselling books on exponential thinking and abundance mindset.
Dave Blunden
Founder and General Partner of Link Ventures, Dave is a seasoned venture capitalist focused on breakthrough technologies. His portfolio has gained approximately $12 billion in value this year alone, with many successful investments in AI and frontier technologies.
Salim Ismail
Founder of OpenExO and former head of Singularity University's global community, Salim is an expert in exponential organizations and transformation. He has developed methodologies for helping organizations overcome resistance to technological change and has worked with hundreds of companies on exponential growth strategies.
Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross
A computer scientist, physicist, and founder of Reified, Alex holds affiliations with Harvard and MIT. He specializes in artificial intelligence, complex systems, and the intersection of physics and computation, providing deep technical insights on AI development trajectories.
Key Takeaways
Code Generation is the Critical Path to AGI
Anthropic's rise in enterprise markets reflects their focus on code generation as potentially the most direct route to recursive self-improvement and artificial general intelligence. (04:02) Alex explains that if code generation can enable AIs to rewrite their core algorithms and architectures, it creates a flywheel effect accelerating toward superintelligence. This strategic bet differentiates Anthropic from OpenAI's broader multimodal approach, positioning them as the trusted enterprise choice while OpenAI competes directly with consumer-focused Google.
40x Hyper Deflation is Reshaping Everything
The cost of AI intelligence is dropping 40 times year-over-year, creating unprecedented economic forces. (30:55) This deflation rate exceeds Moore's Law and represents what Alex calls "the innermost loop" - the nuclear core that will drag down costs across all industries. Dave emphasizes this creates massive opportunities for those who position themselves correctly, similar to how Tesla banked on battery cost reductions. The implications extend far beyond AI to healthcare, education, and every sector touched by intelligence.
Build Your Five-Second Demo
Every leader and entrepreneur should be able to demonstrate their most exciting work in under five seconds on their phone. (15:37) Peter observed Fei Fei Li, one of AI's leading figures, instantly pulling out her phone backstage to show World Labs' breakthrough in seconds, displaying infectious enthusiasm. This ability to rapidly showcase your vision is crucial for inspiring others and gaining support, regardless of your level or industry.
The Global Mindset Challenge
Two-thirds of the world's population lists cost of living, unemployment, and poverty as their top concerns, creating a disconnect with technological optimism. (41:30) This data from 32 countries representing global demographics shows the reality people face while tech leaders discuss abundance and demonetization. The challenge isn't just technological but narrative - helping people believe in and access a hopeful, compelling future before social unrest undermines progress.
Capital Deployment is the New Opportunity
With $1.2 trillion flowing annually into data center construction and power infrastructure by 2030, the biggest opportunity may be in capital deployment rather than just technology development. (58:00) Dave explains how business and economics majors can access government-backed loans for energy projects, creating asymmetric upside with limited downside risk. This represents the largest capital movement in human history, exceeding even railroad and telecom buildouts.
Statistics & Facts
- Anthropic projects $70 billion in revenue with $17 billion in cash flow by 2028, maintaining a 77% profit margin while OpenAI projects $100 billion revenue but remains unprofitable until 2029. (06:58)
- The cost of training AI models has dropped dramatically - Moonshot AI trained a top-performing model for only $4.6 million, representing a 30-40x cost reduction compared to OpenAI and Anthropic's original training costs. (28:00)
- AI intelligence costs are experiencing 40x year-over-year hyper deflation according to Sam Altman, representing faster improvement than Moore's Law and driving down costs across all sectors. (30:55)
