Jens Stoltenberg - Leading NATO in a Time of War
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
Former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reflects on a decade of transformative leadership through unprecedented global challenges in this candid conversation with Adam Boulton. Stoltenberg, who served from 2014-2024 during some of NATO's most testing moments, discusses his new book "On My Watch," sharing behind-the-scenes insights from his interactions with world leaders including Putin, Trump, and Zelensky. (07:00)
Main themes:
- NATO's evolution through crises including Russian aggression, the rise of China, and internal alliance tensions while maintaining collective defense and adapting to new warfare technologies
Speakers
Jens Stoltenberg
Former NATO Secretary-General (2014-2024) and two-time Prime Minister of Norway who served during some of the alliance's most challenging periods. Currently serving as Norway's Finance Minister, Stoltenberg previously held the same role 28 years ago and was instrumental in establishing Norway's sovereign wealth fund from oil revenues. He has authored a new book "On My Watch" detailing his experiences leading the world's most powerful military alliance through a decade of global crises.
Adam Boulton
Veteran British political journalist and broadcaster who conducted this interview as part of the How To Academy's live events program in London.
Key Takeaways
Intelligence Without Action Creates Dangerous Vacuums
Stoltenberg reveals how NATO possessed detailed intelligence about Russia's invasion plans months in advance, sharing this publicly in an unprecedented move. (09:00) The alliance knew both Russian capacity and intentions by February 2021, yet many still didn't believe the warnings. This highlights a critical leadership lesson: having information isn't enough - you must act decisively on credible intelligence, even when others resist believing uncomfortable truths. The failure to adequately prepare Ukraine with defensive weapons between 2014-2022 demonstrates how hesitation in the face of clear evidence can have catastrophic consequences.
Deterrence Requires Credible Strength, Not Just Rhetoric
NATO's core purpose isn't to win wars but to prevent them through credible deterrence that leaves no room for adversary miscalculation. (58:00) Stoltenberg emphasizes that deterrence exists "in the mind of the adversary" - they must know with certainty they cannot win. This principle applies beyond military contexts: in business, negotiations, or personal conflicts, your position is only as strong as others believe it to be. Credible deterrence requires backing strong words with demonstrable capabilities and unwavering commitment.
Dialogue Doesn't Mean Appeasement - Engage From Position of Strength
Even with aggressive adversaries like Putin, Stoltenberg initially pursued dialogue while maintaining strong defenses. (25:00) His earlier experience working with Russian officials, including being code-named "Steklov" by the KGB, taught him that engagement is possible but must come from a position of strength. The lesson: never negotiate from weakness, but don't abandon communication channels entirely. Effective leaders maintain multiple approaches simultaneously - preparing for conflict while remaining open to diplomatic solutions.
Build Alliances Before You Need Them
NATO's expansion wasn't Western aggression but Eastern European nations desperately seeking security after experiencing Soviet oppression. (64:00) Countries like Poland and Czech Republic "begged" for membership because they understood the value of collective security. Stoltenberg notes that when you're strong together, you're safer than alone - even for superpowers like the United States. In professional contexts, build your network and alliances during good times, not when crisis hits. Having established relationships provides options and strength when challenges arise.
Technology Changes Everything - Stay Ahead or Fall Behind
Stoltenberg warns that artificial intelligence and unmanned systems will transform warfare more dramatically than the industrial revolution changed the World Wars. (55:00) NATO's historical advantage came from technological superiority, now threatened by China's rapid advancement. The parallel for professionals: technological disruption doesn't wait for you to catch up. Continuously invest in learning new technologies and adapting your skills, because those who fall behind technologically often become irrelevant quickly. The private sector now drives most advanced technology development, requiring new approaches to staying competitive.
Statistics & Facts
- NATO allies have increased from only 2 countries spending more than 2% of GDP on defense (US and UK) in 2014 to a much broader base by 2024, with Norway now spending 3.4% including Ukraine aid. (34:00) This dramatic shift occurred largely due to pressure from both Obama and Trump administrations.
- NATO represents 50% of the world's economy and 50% of global military might when combined, compared to the US alone representing 25% of global economy. (39:00) This demonstrates the alliance's collective power advantage over individual nations.
- Child mortality has been reduced by more than two-thirds since 1990 as part of UN Millennium goals, representing unprecedented human progress. (76:36) Stoltenberg uses this statistic to argue that despite current conflicts, the world is moving in a positive direction overall.
