Ep 387: Can Substack Save Journalism? + Viral Advice for Ignoring Your Phone
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In this episode of Deep Questions, Cal Newport explores the rise of paid newsletter platforms like Substack through the lens of economist Paul Krugman's successful transition from the New York Times to his own newsletter. (02:00) Newport analyzes whether paid newsletters can replace traditional print media by examining key metrics around subscriber numbers, revenue potential, and market size. The episode reveals that while Substack has created meaningful income opportunities for writers, the ecosystem remains relatively small compared to traditional media at its peak.
- Main theme: Can paid newsletters like Substack successfully replace traditional journalism and create a sustainable alternative media ecosystem?
Speakers
Cal Newport
Cal Newport is a computer science professor at Georgetown University and bestselling author of books including "Deep Work" and "Slow Productivity." He hosts the Deep Questions podcast and writes extensively about productivity, technology's impact on society, and the pursuit of meaningful work in an increasingly distracted world.
Key Takeaways
Understanding the True Scale of Newsletter Success
Newport's research reveals that only about 34 newsletters on Substack have reached the 500,000+ subscriber level that generates million-dollar annual revenues. (17:02) While this represents significant success for individual writers, it demonstrates that newsletter platforms haven't yet scaled to match traditional media's peak employment levels. The analysis shows approximately 500-1,000 writers making a substantial living ($150,000+ annually) from newsletters, compared to tens of thousands who worked in traditional newspapers. This suggests that while newsletters can provide viable alternatives for talented writers, they won't dramatically expand the total number of people who can make a living from journalism.
The Psychology Behind Phone Addiction Requires Filling the Void
Newport's viral advice on reducing phone usage centers on addressing the underlying psychological void that drives excessive screen time. (55:58) His experiment with 1,600 people revealed that those who successfully avoided social media for 30 days were the ones who aggressively pursued alternative activities and interests, rather than just "white-knuckling" their way through abstinence. The key insight is that phones often serve as a way to "paper over the void" created by unmet potential, misalignment with values, and life's inherent difficulties. Simply removing the phone without addressing what it was helping you avoid leads to failure.
Newsletter Revenue Models Can Be Highly Lucrative
Using Krugman as a case study, Newport demonstrates that successful newsletter writers can earn between $1.2-4+ million annually. (07:48) With 505,000 subscribers and assuming a 3-10% conversion rate to paid subscriptions at $7/month, the math shows substantial earning potential. This revenue model often exceeds what writers could earn at traditional publications, explaining why established journalists are making the transition. However, building such an audience requires consistent daily publishing and substantial existing credibility or expertise.
Individual Writers vs. Institutional Media Offers Better Bias Transparency
Newport argues that readers can more effectively assess and adjust for bias when consuming content from individual newsletter writers compared to large media institutions. (40:22) When engaging with someone like Paul Krugman, readers understand his political perspective and can filter his insights accordingly. This contrasts with institutional media that claims neutrality while operating with clear biases, leading to declining trust. Individual writers who are transparent about their viewpoints allow readers to apply appropriate skepticism while still benefiting from their expertise and analysis.
Platform Dependence Poses Long-term Risks
The greatest threat to the newsletter economy isn't the model itself but dependence on a single platform like Substack. (45:48) Newport warns of "enshittification" - the tendency for platforms to initially provide value to build an audience, then shift focus toward maximizing revenue in ways that degrade user experience. If Substack prioritizes becoming a billion-dollar company over serving writers and readers, it could transform from a publishing tool into an attention-grabbing distraction platform. The solution requires developing open-source or independent alternatives that maintain low friction for writers while avoiding single-platform dependence.
Statistics & Facts
- Paul Krugman's Substack has 505,000 subscribers and ranks #6 in US Politics, potentially generating $1.2-4+ million annually based on 3-10% conversion rates to paid subscriptions. (04:48)
- Only 34 newsletters across all Substack categories have reached 500,000+ subscribers, with US Politics leading at 15 such newsletters, followed by Business and Technology with 4 each. (17:17)
- US newspaper circulation peaked at 60 million in the 1980s-90s but has fallen to approximately 20 million by 2022, while industry revenue dropped from $50 billion in 2005 to around $11 billion today. (23:49)
