The Famed Hacker Trying To Find The World's Best Inventors - EP 45 Pablos Holman
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In this engaging episode of Core Memory, host Ashley Vance interviews Pablo's Holman, a fascinating figure who has spent decades at the intersection of hacking, invention, and deep tech. (04:00) Holman shares his unconventional journey from being one of Alaska's first computer users to becoming a renowned hacker, working at Blue Origin with Jeff Bezos and Neal Stephenson, contributing to Intellectual Ventures' invention lab, and now running a venture capital firm focused on deep tech breakthroughs. The conversation centers around his new book "Deep Future: Creating Technology That Matters," which argues for a shift away from Silicon Valley's software obsession toward solving bigger problems through advanced technologies like nuclear reactors, autonomous ships, and space-based solar power.
- Main Theme: The urgent need to redirect technological innovation from incremental software improvements toward "deep tech" solutions that can address humanity's biggest challenges and transform trillion-dollar industries.
Speakers
Pablo's Holman
Pablo's Holman is a renowned inventor, hacker, and venture capitalist with over 30 years of experience in cutting-edge technology circles. He gained fame through one of the most-watched TED Talks of all time demonstrating live hacking techniques, helped start Blue Origin with Jeff Bezos and sci-fi author Neal Stephenson, and worked at Intellectual Ventures' invention lab alongside Nathan Myhrvold and Bill Gates. He currently runs a venture capital firm specializing in deep tech investments and has recently published his first book "Deep Future: Creating Technology That Matters."
Ashley Vance
Ashley Vance is the host of Core Memory and a veteran technology journalist known for covering innovative companies and breakthrough technologies. He has written extensively about space companies, deep tech ventures, and the intersection of technology and society, bringing complex technical concepts to broader audiences through his reporting and podcast.
Key Takeaways
Think on Longer Time Horizons for Breakthrough Innovation
Holman learned from Jeff Bezos at Blue Origin to think in generational timescales rather than the typical 10-year Silicon Valley horizon. (37:27) This approach involves asking: "In 100 years, will we still be doing things this way?" If the answer is no, then work backwards to figure out how to achieve that future state in 10 years instead. For example, everyone knows that in 100 years cars will be electric, not gas-powered, so the question becomes what it would take to make that transition happen in a decade. This long-term thinking enables identification of force multiplier technologies that can compress timelines and create massive disruption.
Focus on Force Multiplier Technologies Over Incremental Improvements
Rather than making existing solutions 10% better, Holman advocates for finding technologies that are 10 times better - what he calls "force multipliers." (40:00) These breakthrough technologies can transform 100-year timelines into 10-year opportunities. The key is identifying new scientific discoveries or technological capabilities that fundamentally change the physics or economics of a problem, rather than optimizing within existing constraints.
Target Trillion-Dollar Industries Beyond Software
While the entire global tech industry generates about $5 trillion annually, the global GDP exceeds $100 trillion, meaning 95% of economic activity remains untouched by Silicon Valley innovation. (72:28) Holman argues that energy, shipping, food, construction, manufacturing, and sanitation represent multi-trillion dollar opportunities that dwarf typical software markets. Instead of disrupting taxi companies, entrepreneurs should focus on disrupting General Electric, General Motors, and other industrial giants where the total addressable markets are orders of magnitude larger.
Support Inventors as a Neglected Creative Class
Most people can name dozens of artists, musicians, and actors, but struggle to name living inventors despite inventors being arguably our most important creative class. (48:06) Society celebrates entrepreneurs who commercialize inventions but ignores the inventors who create the underlying technologies. Holman experienced this firsthand at Intellectual Ventures, where they generated 6,000 patents through systematic invention, recognizing that invention requires massive scale due to its 1,000-to-1 risk profile compared to the 10-to-1 ratios in traditional venture capital.
Embrace the Power Law of Deep Tech Investment
Deep tech operates on much longer timelines and higher risk profiles than software startups. (55:00) Patents represent inventions that are typically 10 years before becoming startups, and most will fail due to unpredictable market conditions, competitive landscapes, and technological changes. Success requires accepting this extreme risk profile and making enough bets to capture the rare breakthrough that pays for all the failures. This "shots on goal" approach is essential for anyone working in deep tech, whether as an investor, founder, or inventor.
Statistics & Facts
- Global tech industry revenue is approximately $5 trillion annually, while global GDP exceeds $100 trillion, meaning 95% of economic activity remains untouched by Silicon Valley innovation. (72:28)
- At Intellectual Ventures, Holman's team generated 6,000 patents through systematic invention, operating on a 1,000-to-1 risk profile where they needed 1,000 patents to potentially get one major commercial success. (54:53)
- The global shipping industry alone represents a $2 trillion market, equivalent to the entire software industry, just for moving containers from manufacturers to consumers. (73:54)
