Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
Casey Handmer, founder of Terraform Industries, joins the podcast to explain his solar maximalist worldview and why he believes solar costs will drop another 10X, fundamentally transforming our energy landscape. (08:24) Terraform is building a machine that makes synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air, essentially creating an "oil well" powered by solar panels that produces clean hydrocarbons. The conversation explores why Hyperloop failed due to fundamental physics constraints, the lessons of underappreciated industrialist Henry Kaiser who built everything from dams to ships to healthcare systems, and Casey's grand plan to refill the Salton Sea through solar-powered desalination. (39:08)
- Core themes include solar energy's exponential cost decline, the importance of "hard-edged" leadership in hardware companies, American industrial policy, and the potential for synthetic fuels and desalination to solve major infrastructure challenges
Speakers
Casey Handmer
Casey Handmer is the founder of Terraform Industries, which develops machines that produce synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air. He previously worked at Hyperloop before escaping academia and is a prodigious blogger and polymath. Handmer is also developing solar-powered desalination technology and has extensive experience in hardware entrepreneurship and industrial engineering.
Key Takeaways
Solar Power Will Experience Another 10X Cost Reduction
Casey argues that people fundamentally misunderstand where we are on solar's exponential cost curve. (18:19) With panels improving at roughly 40% cost reduction per doubling of production and production doubling every two years, we're looking at approximately 20% annual cost improvements. The current 8¢ per watt could drop to 4¢ per watt, with physics allowing costs to go at least 10 times lower than current levels. This isn't just about panels - when you build systems with fewer intermediating layers, you can capture these fundamental cost savings and pass them to customers, which is essential for synthetic fuels to work economically.
Hard-Edged Leadership is Essential for Hardware Success
After running his own hardware company, Casey updated his worldview on leadership demands. (70:00) He learned that "success is mandatory" regardless of how people achieve it, and discovered that people are capable of far more than they think but require extrinsic motivation. The demanding leadership style isn't incidental to hardware success - it's necessary because hardware projects face real physical constraints and market pressures that software projects don't. Casey notes that nothing is worse for someone's career than failing in a job because their manager won't provide direct feedback or make tough decisions.
American Manufacturing Can Compete Through Automation
Rather than conceding manufacturing to China, Casey believes America should leverage its advantages through automation. (38:54) He points to SpaceX's Starlink terminal production facility as an example - it's 99.99% automated and produces at massive scale in the United States. The key is not trying to compete on labor costs but on automation, software integration, and eliminating intermediating layers. Casey argues that if Apple spent $100 billion on manufacturing investment in America instead of China, they could absolutely build iPhones successfully in Silicon Valley.
Desalination Could Transform Western Water Scarcity
Casey's vision for desalination goes far beyond emergency water supplies. (55:58) He believes solar-powered thermal desalination could produce water at $99 per acre foot, making it economically viable for large-scale agriculture and urban development. His grand plan involves refilling California's Salton Sea with 3 million acre feet of water, creating 110 miles of coastline for development that could be funded by the resulting land value appreciation. This approach could unlock vast amounts of currently unused land in Nevada and other western states.
Government Intervention Needs Strategic Focus
While Casey sees value in government support for key technologies, he advocates for targeted intervention rather than broad market distortion. (33:01) Chinese subsidies through zero-interest loans accelerated solar development, but Casey argues similar results could have been achieved in Western liberal democracies. The key is providing "fat checks" for important projects while allowing markets to function, similar to successful defense contracting. However, he opposes raising taxes to pick winners in domestic solar manufacturing, preferring to remove regulatory barriers to deployment instead.
Statistics & Facts
- Solar panel costs improve by roughly 40% per doubling of production, with production doubling approximately every two years, resulting in about 20% annual cost improvements. (18:28)
- China has deployed more solar in the last three months than the United States has ever deployed in its entire history, demonstrating their massive scale of electrification. (29:02)
- SpaceX has approximately 95% market share for global rocket launches, with the second place being China, showing the extent of their dominance in the space sector. (45:13)
