All-In's 2026 Predictions
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In this year-end prediction episode of the All-In podcast, Jason Kalacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg discuss their predictions for 2026 across politics, business, and market trends. The conversation kicks off with the besties discussing California's proposed wealth tax and how it's driving tech leaders like Sacks to relocate to Austin. (00:00) The hosts then dive into their predictions across multiple categories, from political winners and losers to best-performing assets and most anticipated trends. Key themes include the continued Trump boom potentially delivering 5-6% GDP growth, the rise of AI automation replacing traditional jobs, and a major shift toward government spending audits at all levels. (12:27)
- Main themes center around economic optimism, political polarization, technological disruption, and the ongoing exodus from California due to proposed wealth taxes
Speakers
Jason Kalacanis
Serial entrepreneur, angel investor, and host of multiple podcasts including This Week in Startups. He's the founder of Launch and executive producer for life of the All-In podcast, having created and named the show.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Former Facebook executive turned venture capitalist and CEO of Social Capital. Known for his contrarian investment thesis and outspoken views on technology and economics.
David Sacks
Co-founder and CEO of Craft Ventures, former PayPal COO, and recently joined the Trump administration. He's relocating from California to Austin, Texas and has made significant financial sacrifices for government service.
David Friedberg
CEO and founder of The Production Board, former Google executive, and agricultural technology investor known as the "Sultan of Science" among the group.
Key Takeaways
California's Wealth Tax Could Trigger Massive Exodus
The proposed California wealth tax represents a fundamental shift from traditional taxation to asset seizure, potentially driving out half a trillion dollars in net worth from high earners. (03:00) Sacks explains that the tax's supervoting stock provision could force founders like Google's Larry Page and Sergey Brin to pay taxes on inflated valuations, making their effective tax rate closer to 25% rather than 5%. The political and economic implications extend beyond individual relocations to affecting California's long-term budget sustainability and innovation ecosystem.
The Trump Economic Boom Could Deliver Historic GDP Growth
Economic indicators suggest the U.S. could see unprecedented GDP growth of 5-6% in 2026, driven by productivity gains, border policy changes, and tax cuts. (13:54) The Atlanta Fed has already revised Q4 2025 GDP estimates to 5.4%, while productivity surged 4.9% - the strongest reading in six years. This growth is supported by falling inflation, rising real wages, and significant improvements in trade deficits, creating conditions for what Sacks calls "the Trump boom."
AI Will Increase, Not Decrease, Demand for Knowledge Workers
Contrary to popular belief about AI displacing jobs, Sacks argues that AI will increase aggregate demand for knowledge workers through Jevon's Paradox. (57:58) As the cost of generating code and performing analysis drops dramatically, the total demand for these services will increase massively. Historical examples include radiology, where the number of radiologists has increased as AI makes scans cheaper and more accessible, leading to more scans overall and better patient outcomes.
Government Spending Audits Will Become the New Political Battleground
The movement to audit government spending at all levels represents a major political trend for 2026, with citizens demanding transparency in how tax dollars are spent. (78:36) This includes everything from Pentagon audits to state-level investigations of waste, fraud, and abuse. The trend is being driven by independent journalists and citizen activists who are exposing mismanagement, creating political pressure for accountability and fiscal responsibility.
Traditional Software Companies Face Disruption from AI Automation
The software industrial complex, worth $3-4 trillion annually, faces significant contraction as AI agents automate maintenance and migration services that represent 90% of software revenues. (43:03) Chamath predicts companies will be able to maintain existing functionality at much lower costs while gaining greater flexibility. This shift will particularly impact public SaaS companies that rely on per-seat pricing models, as organizations reduce headcount and automate previously manual processes.
Statistics & Facts
- The Atlanta Fed revised its Q4 2025 GDP growth estimate to 5.4%, up from 2.7% just days earlier, with US productivity surging 4.9% - the strongest reading in nearly six years. (64:01)
- Ford is trying to hire mechanics at $160,000 per year with 5,000 openings available, demonstrating the tight labor market in skilled trades. (65:58)
- The proposed California wealth tax would affect supervoting shareholders differently, with Google's founders potentially facing taxes based on 52% of Google's $4 trillion market cap rather than their actual liquid net worth. (06:56)
