Why Speed, Not Size, Will Define the Next War
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
This a16z podcast episode features a critical discussion on America's defense readiness in an era of rising global tensions. Host Erik Torenberg interviews Horacio Rozanski, CEO of Booz Allen Hamilton, and Gary Steele, CEO of Shield AI, about how technology, speed, and strategic partnerships are reshaping America's defense strategy. The conversation covers key lessons learned from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the transformative role of autonomous systems in modern warfare, and the urgent need for faster procurement processes to maintain America's technological edge. (00:53)
- Main Theme: The episode explores how America can leverage advanced technology, particularly AI and autonomous systems, through innovative public-private partnerships to maintain its defense superiority in an increasingly dangerous geopolitical landscape.
Speakers
Horacio Rozanski
Horacio Rozanski serves as CEO of Booz Allen Hamilton, a leading technology consulting firm that has been a major government contractor for over 100 years. Under his leadership, Booz Allen has transformed into a technology-focused company that is the number one provider of AI to the federal government and a leader in cybersecurity services. The company focuses 75% of its efforts on national security challenges and has deployed employees to Ukraine to provide direct support in high-value targeting against Russian forces.
Gary Steele
Gary Steele is the CEO of Shield AI, a ten-year-old company specializing in next-generation autonomous systems. Shield AI develops software development kits for autonomy and manufactures advanced drones, including vertical takeoff and landing Group 3 drones used for surveillance and targeting. Under Steele's leadership, the company has distinguished itself through rapid deployment capabilities and cross-domain autonomous systems that operate in air and maritime environments.
Key Takeaways
Speed Beats Size in Modern Warfare
Traditional defense thinking focused on building bigger, more robust systems that could last decades. However, both leaders emphasize that in today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, "ultimately, it'll be the faster, not the bigger that we'll win." (10:13) This represents a fundamental shift from risk-minimization to speed-optimization, where companies and military organizations must be willing to fail fast, iterate quickly, and deploy solutions that work rather than waiting for perfect systems. The Ukrainian conflict demonstrates this principle in action, where rapid iteration and real-time adaptation have been key to effectiveness.
Autonomous Systems Are Redefining Combat
The rise of drone warfare and autonomous systems is fundamentally changing how conflicts are fought. Steele explains that these systems reduce human risk while pushing more responsibility onto technology to deliver mission outcomes. (15:17) Unlike traditional warfare where human-operated systems dominated, autonomous drones now play critical roles in surveillance, targeting, and attack missions. This shift requires military forces to operate across five domains simultaneously - air, land, sea, cyberspace, and space - with autonomous systems that can react in real-time without human intervention when latency makes communication impossible.
GPS-Denied Operations Are the New Normal
Modern conflicts increasingly occur in GPS-denied and communications-denied environments, fundamentally changing how military systems must operate. Steele notes from Shield AI's experience in Ukraine that "you literally never have comms." (13:24) This reality forces defense contractors to build capabilities that can function independently without constant communication or GPS guidance. Organizations must develop edge computing capabilities and autonomous decision-making systems that can operate effectively when cut off from traditional support infrastructure.
Open Source Intelligence Can Match Classified Sources
The democratization of intelligence gathering through commercial satellites, social media, and smartphone data has created new opportunities for rapid intelligence collection. Rozanski reveals that open source intelligence (OSINT) is often "as good or perhaps not quite as good as what comes in on the classified channels, but it can get there faster." (14:13) This speed advantage in intelligence gathering allows for faster decision-making and response times, which are critical in modern conflict scenarios where timing can determine outcomes.
All-of-Nation Approach Is Essential for Defense
America's defense strategy cannot rely solely on government, existing defense contractors, or Silicon Valley innovation in isolation. Rozanski argues that "The US has to have a response that cannot be driven solely by the government, solely by the existing defense base, solely by the Valley. It's really gonna take everybody." (23:43) This requires unprecedented cooperation between traditional defense contractors, tech startups, government agencies, and allies to create an ecosystem capable of responding to coordinated threats from adversaries who are themselves collaborating across nations.
Statistics & Facts
- Approximately 75% of Booz Allen Hamilton's business focuses on national security challenges, demonstrating the company's transformation from a general consulting firm to a defense-focused technology provider. (19:00)
- Shield AI has achieved significant time-to-flight advantages in autonomous systems deployment, allowing rapid deployment of autonomous drones in complex operational environments where traditional runway-based systems cannot operate effectively.
- Booz Allen Hamilton has deployed "a couple dozen employees" directly to Ukraine to work alongside Ukrainian forces in providing high-value targeting capabilities against Russian forces, giving them real-world combat experience. (12:28)
