BTC253: Quantum Computing and Bitcoin w/ Charles Edwards (Bitcoin Podcast)
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
Preston Pysh and Charles Edwards dive deep into quantum computing fundamentals, exploring how this emerging technology works through superposition, entanglement, and interference. They examine the critical distinction between physical and logical qubits, current industry applications, and the exponential progress being made in the field. The conversation centers heavily on quantum computing's potential threat to Bitcoin's encryption, with multiple expert sources converging on a 2-9 year timeline for "Q-Day" - when quantum computers could break current cryptographic systems. (13:07)
- Main theme: The urgent need for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency communities to prepare for quantum computing threats through proactive collaboration, technical upgrades like BIP 360, and consensus-building on post-quantum migration strategies.
Speakers
Preston Pysh
Preston Pysh is the host of The Investor's Podcast Network's Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast and Infinite Tech series. He focuses on exploring Bitcoin, AI, robotics, longevity, and other exponential technologies through a lens of abundance and sound money, connecting breakthrough technologies shaping the next decade and beyond.
Charles Edwards
Charles Edwards is a Bitcoin analyst and investor who has spent the last eight years building open-source on-chain models for Bitcoin valuation and intrinsic value analysis. He is currently developing a quantum computing investment index and working toward launching a US-listed quantum ETF, while actively advocating for quantum-resistant upgrades to Bitcoin's infrastructure.
Key Takeaways
Quantum Computing Operates on Fundamentally Different Physics
Traditional computers work in binary states of ones and zeros, but quantum computers leverage quantum physics principles where particles can exist in multiple states simultaneously (superposition). (02:30) This allows quantum machines to simulate multiple solutions at once and solve optimization problems exponentially faster than classical computers. Charles explains this breakthrough enables quantum computers to tackle mathematical equations that would take classical supercomputers trillions of years to solve - problems previously considered impossible.
The Critical Difference Between Physical and Logical Qubits
A major source of confusion in quantum computing discussions stems from conflating physical and logical qubits. (08:54) Physical qubits have high error rates due to noise and interference, while logical qubits represent error-corrected, functional processing units. Charles emphasizes that breaking Bitcoin's encryption requires only about 2,330 logical qubits, not the millions of physical qubits often cited in headlines. The ratio between physical and logical qubits varies dramatically between systems, making timeline predictions challenging.
Bitcoin Migration Will Take Years, Not Months
Even after a quantum-resistant solution like BIP 360 is agreed upon, migrating Bitcoin addresses will require 10-30 months due to transaction throughput limitations and signature size increases. (28:05) Post-quantum signatures are 1-20 kilobytes versus 70 bytes for current signatures, dramatically reducing the number of transactions that can fit in each block. This migration bottleneck means the Bitcoin community needs to reach consensus on quantum resistance solutions by 2026 to have sufficient time for implementation before potential Q-Day scenarios.
25% of Bitcoin Supply Remains Immediately Vulnerable
Approximately 25% of Bitcoin exists in Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses where public keys are exposed on the blockchain, making them immediately vulnerable to quantum attacks. (26:03) This includes Satoshi's estimated 1.25 million Bitcoin and other early addresses. The remaining 75% in newer address formats have some protection as long as they don't spend coins, but this protection is temporary. Lost coins and wallets that fail to upgrade represent a significant portion of Bitcoin that will be unlocked by quantum computers regardless of community action.
Multiple Expert Sources Converge on 2-9 Year Timeline
Leading quantum researchers, Bitcoin developers, and major consulting firms independently project Q-Day scenarios within 2-9 years, with high probability clustering around 4-5 years. (13:17) Pierre Rokey (PhD in quantum physics) estimates 2-6 years, Jameson Lopp sees 50% risk in 4-9 years, McKinsey projects 2-10 years for RSA breaking, and the US Department of Defense identifies tangible risk within three years. This convergence across diverse expert sources suggests the timeline is accelerating faster than many Bitcoin community members realize.
Statistics & Facts
- 2,330 logical qubits needed to break Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography: Research from Microsoft, IronQ, and Meta indicates this specific number of error-corrected qubits can compromise Bitcoin's encryption, significantly lower than the millions of physical qubits often cited in media reports. (14:11)
- Quantum computing progress doubles every 18 months: Charles Edwards notes that quantum qubit development is progressing faster than Moore's Law, with error rates improving by an additional order of magnitude each year, indicating exponential advancement in the field.
- 25% of Bitcoin supply vulnerable to immediate quantum attack: This represents approximately 1.25 million Bitcoin in Pay-to-Public-Key addresses where public keys are exposed, including Satoshi's coins and other early wallet formats that cannot be protected through current upgrade strategies.
