Raging Moderates: Why Progressives Won’t WIN in the 2026 Midterms (ft. David Frum)
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In this episode of Raging Moderates, Jessica Tarlov is joined by David Frum from The Atlantic to discuss the Democratic Party's strategic challenges and Trump's controversial military actions. (01:23) The conversation covers Democrats continuing to campaign against Trump even months after losing the White House, with critics arguing this approach risks sounding stale when voters want forward-looking solutions. (04:03) They also examine Trump's deadly strikes on boats in the Caribbean, which have killed 32 people in seven strikes, with questions emerging about whether these operations truly target drug traffickers or represent something more dangerous. (22:15) Finally, they analyze the Maine Senate race where Graham Platner's campaign has been derailed by offensive Reddit posts, sparking debate about accountability and the future of candidates who've lived their lives online.
- Main themes: Democratic messaging strategy, Trump's authoritarian expansion of executive power, and the challenges facing a new generation of political candidates with extensive digital footprints
Speakers
Jessica Tarlov
Jessica Tarlov is co-host of Raging Moderates and a prominent political analyst. She works in conservative media and brings extensive experience analyzing political strategy and messaging from a Democratic perspective.
David Frum
David Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic and former speechwriter for President George W. Bush. He's known for his sharp political analysis and is frequently cited by other commentators, including Scott Galloway, who often references Frum's 2019 observation that "if liberals won't enforce borders, fascists will."
Key Takeaways
Run Different Campaigns in Different Places During Midterms
David Frum argues that successful midterm strategies require flexibility rather than unified messaging. (08:20) Unlike presidential elections where one candidate must appeal to everyone, midterm campaigns allow the out-party to tailor attacks to local concerns. Republicans defending Trump's policies face the challenge of defending tariffs, increased spending, and controversial wars everywhere, while Democrats can emphasize different aspects of Trump's record based on what resonates locally. This strategic advantage explains why unified Democratic messaging may be less important than targeted, localized campaigns that speak to specific voter concerns in each district.
Prioritize Governance Competence Over Populist Appeal
Frum emphasizes that Democrats, as the party of government, must nominate people who understand how things work. (15:47) He contrasts this with Republicans who can elect "Ron Johnson types" because they're not trying to make government function effectively. Democrats need politicians who grasp the mechanics of bureaucracy and policy implementation, not just those who can deliver compelling anti-establishment messages. This means focusing on candidates with real governing experience and policy expertise rather than just charismatic outsiders who may lack the technical knowledge needed to implement progressive reforms.
Take Responsibility Before You're Caught
Using Barack Obama's autobiography as a model, Frum argues that authentic accountability requires disclosure before discovery. (36:32) Obama proactively addressed his past drug use and controversial associations in his book, neutralizing potential attacks. When Graham Platner apologized for offensive Reddit posts only after they were discovered, Frum argues this isn't genuine responsibility-taking. True accountability means telling supporters about your vulnerabilities upfront, explaining why you've changed, and demonstrating that your transformation is sincere rather than reactive to political pressure.
Focus on Supply-Side Solutions for Drug Policy
Frum shares Daniel Patrick Moynihan's story about George Shultz's economic perspective on drug busts to illustrate why military strikes are ineffective. (30:14) Shultz understood that demand creates supply - as long as Americans want drugs, someone will provide them. The successful Plan Colombia model worked by giving farmers better economic alternatives (like cut flowers) rather than just destroying drug operations. Military strikes on boats carrying drugs costing dollars while using missiles costing thousands represents fundamentally flawed economics that cannot succeed in reducing drug flows to America.
Understand the Real Costs of School Closures
Frum identifies Biden's acquiescence to extended school closures as a critical decision that damaged both individual lives and Democratic electoral prospects. (45:05) Students on the margin of dropping out did so when schools closed, with many getting into legal trouble during unsupervised time. This created lasting damage - not just educational learning loss, but criminal records that will follow young people for life. The decision to let teachers' unions drive school closure policy, rather than having the president weigh competing interests and prioritize the next generation, represents the kind of consequential choice that requires vigorous executive leadership.
Statistics & Facts
- 32 people have been killed in 7 U.S. military strikes on boats in the Caribbean since Trump took office, with questions emerging about whether the targets were actually drug traffickers or innocent fishermen and civilians. (22:10)
- The U.S. made a $5 million heroin bust in 1971 (the largest in history at that time and basis for The French Connection movie), yet as George Shultz observed, the fundamental economic principle remained: demand will always create supply regardless of interdiction efforts. (30:14)
- Graham Platner raised approximately $4 million for his Maine Senate campaign before offensive Reddit posts derailed his candidacy, demonstrating how online histories can destroy well-funded political aspirations. (41:27)
