How to Use Probability Hacking to Achieve Your Goals
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In this episode of The Art of Manliness podcast, host Brett McKay sits down with strategy consultant Kyle Austin Young, author of "Success Is a Numbers Game," to explore how every goal has a hidden probability of success or failure. (04:03) Young argues that rather than just hoping for the best, people can strategically tilt the odds in their favor through what he calls "probability hacking." The conversation covers three common approaches people take when pursuing goals and introduces a systematic framework for understanding and improving your odds of success.
• The main theme focuses on transforming goal achievement from wishful thinking to strategic probability management through success diagrams and systematic risk reduction.
Speakers
Kyle Austin Young
Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant and author of "Success Is a Numbers Game." He launched his consulting career after being laid off twice in thirteen months, which taught him that individual performance isn't enough if the projects and organizations you're involved with fail. Over the past decade, he has built a successful consulting practice focused on helping clients systematically improve their odds of success by identifying and reducing potential failure points in their goals and projects.
Brett McKay
Brett McKay is the host of The Art of Manliness podcast and founder of the Art of Manliness website. He has been interviewing experts on topics related to personal development, skills, and character for over a decade, building one of the most respected platforms for men seeking practical wisdom and actionable advice.
Key Takeaways
Understanding Goal Probability Through Multiplication, Not Averaging
Most people make a critical error when evaluating their chances of success by averaging the odds of each required step rather than multiplying them together. (22:43) Young demonstrates this with a marathon training example: if you have a 70% chance of sticking to nutrition, sleep, and training plans, most people assume they have a 70% overall chance of success. In reality, you multiply 0.7 × 0.7 × 0.7 = 34% chance of success. This fundamental misunderstanding leads people to pursue goals they're likely to fail at because they don't grasp how multiple requirements compound the difficulty.
Your Odds Can Never Exceed Your Most Unlikely Step
The weakest link in your plan determines your maximum probability of success, making it crucial to identify and address the most improbable requirements first. (25:48) If you need your boss's approval with only a 10% chance of getting it, your overall odds will be lower than 10% regardless of how well you execute other steps. This insight helps you prioritize which obstacles to tackle first and can save enormous amounts of time and resources by addressing the make-or-break elements before investing heavily in other areas.
Think Negative to Improve Your Odds
The most actionable strategy for improving success rates is to systematically identify potential bad outcomes for each step of your goal and then work to make those outcomes less likely. (52:37) Young argues that while everyone tells you to "think positive," probability hacking requires thinking negative in a constructive way. By mapping out what could go wrong at each critical point and developing specific countermeasures, you can transfer odds from potential failures to your success column. This isn't pessimism—it's strategic preparation.
Front-Load Your Most Unlikely Steps
When pursuing any goal, tackle the steps with the worst odds as early as possible to avoid wasting time and resources on a doomed plan. (26:49) If you need someone's approval that you're unlikely to get, ask for it before creating prototypes, building teams, or making other investments. This "fail fast" approach allows you to pivot quickly if the most critical requirements can't be met, rather than discovering fatal flaws after months of work.
Success Diagrams Provide a Blueprint for Future Attempts
When a goal's odds remain poor despite probability hacking efforts, don't abandon the goal entirely—pause it and use your success diagram as a blueprint for building future advantages. (49:59) Young shares how he pursued his childhood dream of writing a book by systematically acquiring the necessary credentials over 25 years: building an audience, gaining writing experience with major publications, and developing expertise. The diagram showed him exactly what advantages he needed to collect over time to eventually succeed.
Statistics & Facts
- If you're shorter than six feet tall, your odds of playing in the NBA are one in 1.2 million, but if you're over seven feet tall, your odds improve dramatically to one in seven. (08:05) This statistic demonstrates how small incremental advantages can create enormous changes in probability.
- Only 6-9% of people accomplish their New Year's resolutions, illustrating that most big goals have inherently poor odds of success. (10:57) This highlights why most people are unconsciously pursuing unlikely goals without strategic planning.
- Nine out of ten businesses fail, representing another commonly cited statistic that shows how most entrepreneurial goals start with poor odds. (10:57) This reinforces the need for probability hacking rather than simply hoping for success.
