Alfred Lin on Airbnb, DoorDash, OpenAI & Citadel Securities
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In this candid conversation with Sequoia Capital's Alfred Lin, one of the most successful venture capitalists of our time shares his insights on navigating the AI revolution and building category-defining companies. (01:31) Lin, who has backed transformative companies like Airbnb, DoorDash, Uber, and OpenAI, discusses how technology cycles now move at unprecedented speeds where "things that happened three months ago are not relevant today." The episode dives deep into his philosophy on founder-market fit, the importance of velocity over speed, and how great leadership emerges during crisis moments. (07:14) Lin provides a masterclass on resilience through Airbnb's near-collapse during COVID-19, revealing how Brian Chesky's crisis management transformed potential disaster into strength. The conversation also explores Sequoia's groundbreaking investment in Citadel Securities, the AI premium driving startup valuations, and why the next decade will be defined by reimagined consumer experiences powered by artificial intelligence.
• Main Theme: Building category-defining companies in the AI era requires velocity (direction + speed), resilient leadership, and the vision to reimagine consumer experiences rather than just automate existing processes.Speakers
Alfred Lin
Alfred Lin is a Partner at Sequoia Capital and three-time #1 Midas List investor who has backed some of the most transformative companies of the past two decades. His portfolio spans early investments in Airbnb, DoorDash, Uber, Zipline, Kalshi, Nominal, and Commure to growth-stage partnerships with OpenAI and Citadel Securities. He consistently identifies founders and businesses that redefine entire markets, continuing this track record with next-generation category creators like Profound and Clay.
Molly O'Shea
Molly O'Shea is the host of Sourcery, where she documents the stories and strategies of the most successful founders and investors in technology. She focuses on capturing the raw elements of company building stages and providing insights for ambitious professionals seeking mastery in their fields.
Key Takeaways
Prioritize Velocity Over Speed in Decision-Making
Lin emphasizes that successful companies focus on velocity rather than pure speed. (16:15) "We don't love the word speed at Sequoia. We love the word velocity. Velocity is a vector. It has a direction and magnitude, and you want people aligned to that direction." This concept becomes crucial during turbulent times when it's easy to run around frantically without making real progress. (16:31) "Motion does not equal progress," Lin explains. The key is getting your entire company aligned and marching in the same direction, especially during AI's rapid changes where founders might chase "a thousand different things" instead of maintaining focus on their core vision.
Build Culture That Survives Crisis Through Purpose and Hope
During Airbnb's COVID crisis, Lin witnessed how great leadership and culture emerge during the hardest times. (08:20) When Airbnb lost 80% of its revenue, Brian Chesky demonstrated three critical elements: purpose (never giving up on the vision that "everybody can belong anywhere"), hope (choosing optimism over despair), and consistent daily action (all-hands meetings, weekly board meetings, systematic crisis management). (14:08) Lin notes that "if you think you have a great culture during good times, you don't really know whether that culture survives during bad times. A great culture survives bad times." This crisis became a defining moment that actually strengthened Airbnb's culture and attracted top talent.
Embrace Continuous Learning and Innovation as Core Cultural Values
Lin advocates for building cultures centered on growth and learning rather than specific technologies. (18:26) "You want to build a culture where people pursue growth and learning, period. Right now, it might be AI, and you want to learn all the tools that can help you build things faster, automate things, etc." He points to successful companies that have navigated multiple technology transitions - from Internet to mobile to cloud to AI. The companies that survive "have had to have act one and act two and do things that are hard," like Amazon becoming a cloud company or DoorDash expanding from restaurant delivery to multiple categories. This adaptability becomes essential as technology cycles accelerate.
Focus on Building Great Companies Rather Than Exit Strategies
When discussing exits and IPOs, Lin takes a counterintuitive approach: (30:50) "The exits is not something that I spend a lot of time thinking about or the founders I work with in general." His philosophy is that if you focus on building a great business and company, exit opportunities will naturally follow. (31:54) He tells founders that "an IPO is another fundraising round. It just happens that you're selling it to the public." The key considerations should be preparedness for public company responsibilities and whether an acquisition fulfills your vision rather than just provides a terminal price. This long-term thinking approach has served his portfolio companies well across multiple market cycles.
Evaluate AI Premiums Through Market Size Expansion, Not Just Current Metrics
Lin addresses the 30.9% premium AI companies command in valuations by looking at historical precedents. (34:54) He explains that similar to how SaaS grew the entire software market beyond original expectations, "what AI has the potential of doing is looking at the services market, which is measured in tens of trillions of dollars." While some premiums may seem "ridiculous," they're justified if AI can expand addressable markets dramatically. (37:12) However, he warns that valuations become reckless "when you can't grow into that valuation over time" since companies are ultimately valued on discounted future cash flows. The key is having conviction that matches the premium you're paying.
Statistics & Facts
- (08:28) Airbnb lost 80% of its revenue during the COVID-19 pandemic after entering 2020 as the number one IPO candidate, demonstrating how quickly market conditions can change even for the most promising companies.
- (34:04) AI software companies that raised funding in 2025 saw a 30.9% higher valuation premium, with average valuations of $55 million versus $42 million for non-AI companies, according to Carta data.
- (39:47) OpenAI reached a $500 billion secondary valuation, which Lin contextualizes by noting that if NVIDIA compounds at 10% for another decade from its current $4 trillion valuation, it would be worth more than $10 trillion.
