Housing in 2026: Home Prices and Rates Are in Flux. Time to Make Your Move?
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast kicks off 2026 with a comprehensive look at economic trends and the housing market. Senior economist Elizabeth Renter joins to analyze 2025's economic highlights, including the impact of tariffs implemented in April, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts starting in September, and a cooling labor market. (02:32) The episode reveals that while hiring rates and quit rates have declined significantly from the "great reshuffling" period, creating challenges for job seekers and those looking to upgrade positions. The discussion then shifts to housing market predictions for 2026, where mortgage expert Abby Badek Doyle shares insights on inventory improvements, mortgage rate trends, and actionable strategies for prospective buyers and sellers. (20:45)
- Main themes center on economic uncertainty from policy changes, housing market recovery signs, and practical guidance for navigating 2026's financial landscape
Speakers
Sean Pyles
Host of NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast, specializing in personal finance education and helping consumers make informed financial decisions.
Elizabeth Renter
NerdWallet's senior economist who provides expert analysis on economic trends, monetary policy, and market conditions. She regularly appears on the show to break down complex economic data and forecasts for consumers.
Anna Helhoski
Senior news writer at NerdWallet who covers breaking financial news and economic developments. She contributes to the podcast's weekly money news roundup segments.
Abby Badek Doyle
NerdWallet's mortgage expert who specializes in home buying, refinancing, and housing market trends. She provides practical guidance for consumers navigating the mortgage process and real estate decisions.
Key Takeaways
Monitor Both Supply and Demand Factors in the Labor Market
Elizabeth Renter emphasized the importance of distinguishing between supply-side and demand-side issues affecting employment. (05:41) Supply issues stem from labor shortages in specific industries, often influenced by immigration policies, while demand issues reflect businesses pulling back on hiring due to economic uncertainty. Understanding this distinction helps professionals gauge whether job market challenges are temporary constraints or deeper economic problems. For career planning, this means staying informed about industry-specific labor needs and being prepared to pivot if your sector faces supply constraints while maintaining competitive skills for when demand returns.
Focus on Controllable Factors When Pursuing Homeownership
Abby Badek Doyle stressed that successful home buying requires concentrating on elements within your control rather than market conditions. (29:24) She recommended using NerdWallet's affordability calculator to establish realistic price ranges and creating lists of must-haves versus compromises. This approach involves budgeting thoroughly, improving credit scores to access better mortgage rates, and building substantial savings for down payments, closing costs, and moving expenses. The key insight is that while you can't control mortgage rates or housing prices, you can optimize your financial position to be ready when opportunities arise.
Leverage Winter Home Buying for Better Deals
January house hunting can provide significant advantages for motivated buyers, according to Abby's analysis. (34:35) Winter sellers are typically more motivated because they're listing out of necessity rather than choice, creating opportunities for better prices and terms. With less competition and fewer bidding wars, buyers have more time to make thoughtful decisions. Additionally, moving costs and contractor services are cheaper during off-peak seasons. This strategy requires being prepared with financing and knowing your target criteria, but can result in substantial savings compared to peak spring buying season.
Build Long-Term Emergency Financial Resilience
Elizabeth Renter highlighted rising household debt delinquency levels as a critical concern for 2026. (13:17) With delinquency rates increasing across auto loans and credit cards, many households are becoming financially fragile and unprepared for economic shocks. This emphasizes the importance of building robust emergency savings, paying down high-interest debt, and avoiding overextension. The takeaway is to prioritize financial stability over lifestyle inflation, especially as economic uncertainty continues. Having strong personal finances provides flexibility during unexpected job loss, market downturns, or other financial emergencies.
Understand Mortgage Rate Timing Relative to Fed Policy
A crucial insight from Abby's discussion is that mortgage rates typically move in anticipation of Federal Reserve decisions, not after them. (25:26) When markets expect Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates often decline weeks before the actual policy announcement. This knowledge helps both buyers and refinancing candidates time their applications more strategically. Rather than waiting for Fed cuts to happen, savvy borrowers monitor Fed communications and market expectations to lock in rates when they're trending downward, potentially saving thousands over the life of a loan.
Statistics & Facts
- By July 2025, housing inventory reached its highest level since before COVID, providing buyers with significantly more options. (21:25) This represents a major shift from the severe inventory shortages that characterized the pandemic-era housing market.
- Mortgage rates briefly flirted with 5.9% toward the end of 2025, crossing the psychologically important threshold below 6%. (23:15) This rate level was not expected to be reached until 2026 according to many forecasters.
- According to NerdWallet's 2026 consumer outlook survey, 17% of respondents plan to buy a new home this year. (28:28) This indicates significant continued demand in the housing market despite affordability challenges.
