Why Roomba Died + Tech Predictions for 2026 + A Hard Forkin’ Xmas Song
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
In this episode, Hard Fork explores the dramatic fall of iRobot, the pioneering company behind the Roomba vacuum cleaner, which filed for bankruptcy and is being taken over by Chinese creditor Pisea Robotics. (02:27) Co-founder and former CEO Colin Angle joins the discussion to explain how regulatory interference in Amazon's proposed $1.7 billion acquisition led to the company's downfall, arguing that antitrust enforcement inadvertently handed American robotics leadership to China. (14:33) The hosts also share their 2025 tech predictions review and make bold forecasts for 2026, concluding with their annual tech-themed Christmas carol performance.
• Main Theme: How misguided antitrust enforcement can undermine American technological competitiveness while inadvertently benefiting foreign competitorsSpeakers
Colin Angle
Colin Angle co-founded iRobot in 1990 after working at MIT's AI laboratory and served as CEO for 33 years until stepping down in 2024. He led the company through the creation of the Roomba in 2002, which pioneered the consumer robotics category and dominated the market for nearly two decades before facing intense competition from Chinese manufacturers.
Casey Newton
Casey Newton is a tech journalist and founder of Platformer, a newsletter covering technology and its impact on society. He co-hosts Hard Fork and provides critical analysis of tech industry trends, platform governance, and the intersection of technology and politics.
Kevin Roose
Kevin Roose is a technology columnist at The New York Times who covers artificial intelligence, automation, and digital culture. He co-hosts Hard Fork and is known for his investigative reporting on AI safety, tech industry practices, and the societal implications of emerging technologies.
Key Takeaways
Protected Markets Create Unfair Competitive Advantages
Colin Angle revealed that Chinese competitors gained significant advantages through government subsidies and protected domestic markets that iRobot couldn't access. (07:01) While iRobot was briefly the leading manufacturer in China, the Chinese government decided this was a market of strategic interest and provided direct subsidies to local competitors while effectively blocking foreign companies. This created an uneven playing field where Chinese companies could develop and refine their products in a protected environment before expanding globally, demonstrating how industrial policy can shape competitive outcomes in emerging technology sectors.
Strategic Technology Choices Can Make or Break Companies
Angle defended iRobot's decision to use cameras instead of LiDAR technology, comparing it to the Tesla vs. Waymo approach in autonomous vehicles. (09:28) He argued that cameras provided better situational awareness and allowed robots to understand whether they were doing a good job, while LiDAR was a "dead end technology." However, he admitted the company "got wet mopping wrong" by creating a separate robot (Scooba) instead of integrating mopping as a feature into the Roomba. This highlights how even successful companies can make critical misjudgments about feature integration and consumer preferences.
Antitrust Enforcement Can Have Unintended Consequences
The FTC's blocking of Amazon's $1.7 billion acquisition of iRobot ultimately led to the company's bankruptcy and acquisition by a Chinese firm. (19:22) Angle argued this was economically irrational, given that iRobot held only 12% market share in Europe and faced declining market share against multiple healthy competitors. He believes iRobot became "roadkill" in a broader political battle against Big Tech, demonstrating how antitrust actions intended to protect competition can sometimes harm the very companies they're meant to help while benefiting foreign competitors.
Innovation Markets Require Careful Nurturing
Markets for emerging technologies are fragile and require strategic support to maintain American leadership. (21:31) Angle warned that the robotics industry outcome should serve as a cautionary tale for the burgeoning physical AI and humanoid robotics sectors, which represent trillions of dollars in potential value creation. He emphasized that regulatory decisions made today will determine whether American companies can maintain their current advantages in AI and robotics, or whether these industries will follow the same path as consumer robotics and shift to foreign control.
Market Leadership Requires Continuous Adaptation
Even dominant companies must constantly evolve to maintain their position against fast-following competitors. (06:42) iRobot invented the consumer robotics category and led it for 17-18 years, but struggled to adapt when Chinese competitors entered with different approaches and government backing. This illustrates how technological leadership alone isn't sufficient—companies must also navigate changing competitive landscapes, regulatory environments, and geopolitical factors to sustain their market positions.
Statistics & Facts
- iRobot held approximately 50% market share in the US at the time of the proposed Amazon acquisition, while maintaining only 12% market share in Europe where it faced declining position against competitors. (15:54)
- Amazon's proposed acquisition of iRobot was valued at $1.7 billion in August 2022, but ultimately fell apart over antitrust concerns after 18 months of regulatory review. (02:11)
- iRobot was founded in 1990 and launched the first Roomba in 2002, leading the consumer robotics category for approximately 17-18 years before facing significant competitive pressure. (05:35)
