Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Timestamps are as accurate as they can be but may be slightly off. We encourage you to listen to the full context.
Podcast Summary
This episode of the All-In Podcast brings together the four besties live from Las Vegas at The Venetian for a wide-ranging discussion on current events and markets. The hosts dive into the recently passed Epstein Files Act, which mandated the release of Jeffrey Epstein's investigative documents with a nearly unanimous 427-1 congressional vote. (01:18) They explore theories about Epstein's wealth sources and potential intelligence connections. The conversation shifts to Tether's booming stablecoin business, with Chamath highlighting their $183 billion in circulating USDT and incredible profit margins from treasury investments. (14:44) The discussion covers NVIDIA's latest blowout quarter and Michael Burry's criticism of tech companies' depreciation accounting practices, followed by Google's impressive Gemini 3 release and potential TPU advantages. The episode concludes with poker legend Alan Keating joining to discuss risk psychology, fear management in high-stakes situations, and his unconventional playing style that emphasizes reading opponents over mathematical optimization. (48:57)
• Main themes: Financial markets disruption through cryptocurrency, AI chip competition, corporate transparency in high-profile investigations, and psychological approaches to risk management both in poker and investing.Speakers
Chamath Palihapitiya
Venture capitalist and founder of Social Capital, former Facebook executive who led the platform's international growth. Known for contrarian investment strategies and outspoken commentary on technology and financial markets.
Jason Calacanis
Serial entrepreneur and angel investor who founded Launch Accelerator and hosts the This Week in Startups podcast. Notable early investor in companies like Uber and Robinhood with over 300 portfolio companies.
David Friedberg
Entrepreneur and scientist who founded and sold Climate Corporation to Monsanto for nearly $1 billion. Currently CEO of Ohalo, a crop science company, and former operator of The Production Board venture studio.
Alan Keating
Professional poker player known for high-stakes games and unconventional playing style on televised poker shows. Early seed investor in Polymarket and former operator of elite poker games in Las Vegas.
Key Takeaways
Master Fear to Make Better Decisions
Alan Keating's poker philosophy centers on navigating fear better than opponents, recognizing that scared people make poor decisions. (56:38) He deliberately puts himself in situations where failure would cause "a little bit of trouble" because it keeps him motivated and sharp. This approach extends beyond poker into investing and business decisions. Rather than avoiding risk, he embraces calculated discomfort as a way to maintain peak performance. The key insight is that mastering fear isn't about eliminating it, but about being comfortable operating while others are paralyzed by anxiety.
Depreciation Accounting Reflects Real Asset Usage
The debate over AI chip depreciation schedules reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of accounting principles. (23:54) Companies like Google can legitimately depreciate H100 chips over 6+ years if they're still generating revenue from those assets, regardless of newer technology being available. The gap between 3-year and 6-year depreciation schedules only affects about 10-12% of major tech companies' profits. Investors already have access to cash flow statements that show true capital expenditures, making accusations of "cooking the books" unfounded. The market efficiently prices these companies based on multiple valuation metrics beyond just GAAP earnings.
Stablecoins Enable Global Financial Inclusion
Tether's business model demonstrates how cryptocurrency can provide financial stability for hundreds of millions globally. (14:45) With 500 million users and 30 million new users quarterly, Tether allows people in countries with depreciating currencies to hold US dollar-backed assets. The company earns substantial returns by investing user deposits in US treasuries, creating a profitable business while serving those excluded from traditional banking. This represents a massive shift toward US dollar hegemony globally, as people worldwide choose dollar-denominated assets over their local currencies for wealth preservation.
Live Reads Trump Mathematical Models in High Stakes
At elite poker levels, psychological reading abilities matter more than solver-based strategies. (51:35) Keating's famous bluff against Doug Polk with 4-2 succeeded because he recognized patterns in betting cadence and body language from earlier hands. In high-stakes games, opponents are too sophisticated for purely mathematical approaches to work consistently. The ability to detect fear, confidence, and deception in real-time becomes the primary edge. This principle applies to business negotiations and investment decisions where human psychology often overrides logical analysis.
Document Every Decision for Better Future Judgment
Keating's practice of thoroughly understanding all reasoning before major decisions exemplifies "super forecasting" principles. (57:37) By documenting his thought process, others' opinions, and emotional state during critical choices, he creates a reference framework for future decisions. This systematic approach to decision-making helps identify patterns in successful versus failed judgments over time. The key is not just making decisions, but understanding why you're making them and being able to reflect on outcomes objectively later.
Statistics & Facts
- The Epstein Files Act passed with a 427-1 vote in the House, with Republican Clay Higgins being the sole dissenting vote. (01:21) The Senate passed it by unanimous consent, requiring sign-off from every senator.
- Tether has $183 billion in circulating USDT with $135 billion invested in US treasuries and serves 500 million users globally, growing by 30 million users per quarter. (27:25)
- NVIDIA reported revenue up 62% year over year and 22% quarter over quarter, with net income of $31.9 billion, up 65% year over year, and expects $65 billion in revenue next quarter. (23:51)
